In February of 2022, the latest technical report on sea-level rise (SLR) for the U.S. was released. This document synthesized the latest available science on how much seas are expected to rise across the U.S. and locally. There are all kinds of great things including:
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Local projections of sea-level rise.
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Extrapolations of observed data from tide gauges.
- Estimated changes in the intensity and frequency of future floods.
This was all really helpful information because we know a lot more now about sea-level rise than we did even five years ago. For example, there is greater certainty out to 2050, with a much narrower range of possible amounts of rise (Figure 1).
Unfortunately, this very helpful information is housed within a very technical document. Even the most advanced coastal professionals have a hard time processing the information and accessing the data affiliated with the report.
To support coastal professionals and decision-makers, a team of extension and outreach specialists who are focused on translating sea-level rise and flood risk information developed the Application Guide for the 2022 SLR Technical Report. The application guide represents a unique collaboration of NOAA’s National Ocean Service, Sea Grant programs (Georgia, Florida, Mississippi/-labama, California, Washington and Hawai'i), Mississippi State University, EcoAdapt and the Jacques Cousteau National Estuarine Research Reserve.
We intended the Application Guide to serve several purposes:
- Explain the concepts behind the science in the technical report.
- Address common questions around using sea-level rise information, including the content from the technical report.
- Present approaches and examples of how to deal with the uncertainty of rising seas in decision-making.
Never work in a vacuum – Get input from end-users
MANY tools and documents that are generated with great intentions do not end up getting used. This can be for a lot of reasons, but often it is due to a disconnect between the targeted end-users and the developers. To make sure that we were adequately meeting the need expressed by our partners, we went through a rigorous process where we iterated with our intended end-users.
First, we constructed an outline of topics that we intended to discuss which was sent around to over 30 potential end-users. Our next step was to develop the text in collaboration with the authors of the technical report to make sure that our content was accurate.
Once we had a draft, we sent it to another 20 external reviewers, all target end-users, to review the language and the content for clarity and completeness. After we worked through all their comments the document was checked for accessibility and released!
The final product
The final product is AWESOME! Divided into several sections, it walks readers through the science updates, how to use the science and how to address uncertainty in rising seas in a variety of different planning and management situations.
Some highlights include visualizing all the locations for which there are locally-specific sea-level rise scenarios and how they compare nationally (Figures 2 and 3).
There are also sections that describe practical considerations around tidal and land datums and how to make sure that when you are comparing data and elevations from different sources, they are all comparing against the same benchmarks in time and space.
There are also three different approaches for how to plan for projects or manage coastal systems in the face of uncertainty and examples of how others have used these approaches.
The scoop on coastal Mississippi and Alabama
In our region, the expectation is that there will be between 1-2 feet of sea-level rise by 2050 compared to the year 2000. We’ve already seen seas rise 6 inches in the past 20 years, and we are trending towards seeing another additional 1.5 feet by 2050.
Another thing we learned about the northeastern Gulf is that seas are actually rising faster than the modeled projections (Figure 4). Scientists have already ruled out that this was caused by sinking lands, and that the reasons are likely related to how the ocean is heating and moving. There is a whole call-out box in the App Guide on page 12 that describes what we are seeing and what it means.
The bottom line is we know that rates are rising quickly and while we may not know exactly why, it is likely to continue in the near term; therefore, these higher extrapolations should be considered in near-term planning.
To learn more about what you and your community members can do to address sea-level rise, reach out to the Sea Grant and Mississippi State University Extension-led PLACE at [email protected] or follow us on Twitter @PLACE_SLR!
To view an hour-long recorded webinar I conducted yesterday on the Application Guide, go to https://vimeo.com/740813095
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